ΕΝΑ ΠΑΡΑΜΥΘΙ ΓΙΑ ΤΗΝ ΝΕΑ ΔΡΑΧΜΗ

Διαβάστε το άρθρο του W.Buiter στους F.T. σχετικά με μία υποθετική χώρα της ευρωζώνης -Hellas-που υποχρεώνεται να εγκαταλείψει το ενιαίο νόμισμα και να δημιουργήσει ένα νέο υποθετικό νόμισμα-new drachma-. Είναι από τα λίγα αισιόδοξα κείμενα το τελευταίο διάστημα, που αφορούν την ωραία χώρα που κατοικεί ο κ. Αλογοσκούφης.
http://docs.google.com/Doc?id=dfdkqqh7_39fb8g7hdd

''..Consider the example of a hypothetical country called Hellas. It could not redenominate its existing stock of euro-denominated obligations in its new currency, let’s call it the New Drachma. That itself would constitute a further act of default. If the New Drachma depreciated sharply against the euro, in both nominal and real terms, following the exit of Hellas from the eurozone, the real value of the government debt-to-GDP ratio would rise. In addition, any new funding through the issuance of New Drachma-denominated sovereign bonds would be subject to an exchange rate risk premium, and these bonds would have to be sold in markets that are less deep and liquid that the market for euro-denominated Hellas debt used to be. So the sovereign eurozone quitter and all who sail in her would be clobbered as regards borrowing costs both on the outstanding stock and on the new flows.

A sharp depreciation of the nominal exchange rate of the New Drachma vis-a-vis the euro would for a short period improve the competitive position of the nation because, with domestic costs and prices sticky in nominal New Drachma terms, a nominal depreciation is also a real depreciation. Nominal rigidities are, however, less important for eurozone economies than for the UK, and much less important than in the US. Real rigidities are what characterises mythical Hellas, as it does real-world Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland. The real benefits from a nominal exchange rate depreciation would be eroded after a year - within two years at most - before you could say cyclical recovery. The New Drachma would be a little currency in a big global financial market system - not an instrument to be used to gain competitive.. ''