So what to do next? Diplomats acknowledge that the EU’s recent history with Erdogan is littered with often hollow threats about sending 3.6m Syrian refugees into Europe. Germany in particular wants to advance talks about providing more help to Ankara to keep alive the 2016 migration deal and assuage concerns from Erdogan that Europe has failed to live up to its promises.
But Erdogan’s rabble-rousing is hardening attitudes in Brussels and drowning out the pleas of Berlin and others to begin constructive talks. To make the point, the Turkish president on Saturday goaded Athens for worrying about a fresh influx of refugees and migrants. “Greece, these people aren’t going to stay with you. They will go onto another European country. Why are you so worried? Greece, open your gates and free yourself of this burden.”
Today is the second time Erdogan will have met EU officials after a crisis meeting with Michel in Ankara last Wednesday. Diplomats described a tough encounter with their Turkish counterparts where the Europeans were told there was “no trust” and “no relationship” left with the EU.
Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is visiting Brussels today to confront EU leaders with a dilemma, veiled as a threat: help me or I will unleash a fresh migration crisis on your borders.
It’s been over a week since Erdogan vowed to open Turkey’s frontiers with Europe, sparking a flare-up on the border with Greece. Thousands of refugees and asylum seekers made their way to Europe’s land and sea frontier only to be met with tear gas, water cannons and plastics bullets.
Erdogan’s trip to Brussels — where he will see European Council president Charles Michel and the commission’s Ursula von der Leyen — comes three days after Europe’s foreign ministers rebuffed Turkish demands for more financial aid under a 2016 migration deal. The Europeans are holding firm on their refusal to start talking terms with Erdogan — about more cash or visa liberalisation — under the threat of “blackmail”.
Erdogan is likely to repeat his list of complaints today. He wants the EU to resettle more refugees from Turkey and accelerate the payment of around €3bn of a promised €6bn to refugee projects under the migration deal. Turkey is also pushing for progress on talks to liberalise visas for Turkish citizens and modernise the EU-Turkey customs arrangement.
A breakthrough on all those fronts is not on the horizon yet. The EU has walked back from ideas that it could free up an extra €1bn for Turkey after events in the last week. Josep Borrell, Brussels’ top diplomat, has said that although he is willing to listen to Turkish gripes, the two sides “have different points of view” on how the deal is functioning.
Meanwhile, EU officials note that the situation on the sea border with Greece has calmed after Turkish authorities ordered the coastguard to stop sea crossings. Migratory flows at the land border have also eased off. Despite some signs of normalisation, Erdogan’s provocative rhetoric is likely to dominate the headlines.
“We have provided $40bn dollars of support [to refugees],” the president said on Saturday. “We just about managed to secure €3bn [from Europe] but where is our $40bn from Europe? Where is our [further] €3bn?”.
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