By James Blitz September 20, 2019 ''Is a deal by October 31 now possible?

Boris Johnson finally looks as though he is trying to secure a Brexit deal when the European Council next meets on October 17. After much uncertainty over the prime minister’s true intentions, this week ends with the feeling that Number 10 and the Brussels machine are finally getting down to business.

Several developments over the past few days suggest there is fresh momentum towards signing a revised Brexit pact.

First, it has become clear the PM is working to promote the idea of an all-island economy that encompasses Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic. The aim is to turn NI into a “special economic zone”, replacing the backstop by minimising as much as possible the scope for a border across the island of Ireland. We are some way from hard proposals being written down but the direction of travel is clear.

Second, Mr Johnson’s allies in the Democratic Unionist party have given initial support to his idea. DUP leader Arlene Foster said this week: “We are prepared to be flexible and look at Northern Ireland-specific solutions achieved with the support and consent of the representatives of the people of Northern Ireland.”

Third, European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker has also appeared open to the idea. After months in which the EU has vigorously defended the backstop, he said he had “no emotional attachment to [it]”. This suggests the EU might consider Mr Johnson’s plan at some point.

So some momentum towards a deal can be seen. Still, there are lots of reasons to doubt whether a pact will be sealed by October 31.

For a start, pinning down all the details of an all-island economy is a daunting task to do in just 30 days. There are lots of issues — relating to customs and the role of the European Court of Justice — that look difficult to resolve. One sign of just how difficult is that some UK officials are suggesting that Britain might like to agree the broad headings of a deal but defer the discussion of many of the thornier details until it is into the post-Brexit transition.

And then, even if a deal could be secured, many wonder whether the Commons would back it. This analysis by Cicero group crunches the numbers and suggests the Commons would give it the green light; but this relies on 17 Labour MPs backing a pact. One old Labour hand says this won’t happen: “Labour MPs are not minded to act as Johnson’s poodles.”

A Brexit deal by October 31 is not wholly out of the question. The factor that makes it a real possibility is that Mr Johnson urgently needs one.

The best scenario for the PM is to get a deal passed and then hold a celebratory election in which Nigel Farage’s Brexit party has few, if any, arguments to make, because Brexit will have been delivered. In these circumstances, Labour will plunge into disarray over Jeremy Corbyn’s failure to stop Brexit, and the Lib Dems’ pledge to revoke Article 50 will become meaningless.

By contrast, another Brexit delay is dangerous for Mr Johnson. He will have failed to deliver on his pledge to get the UK out by October 31. The Brexit party will scorn him for it and that will split the rightwing vote.

The chance of a deal getting through by October 31 is still pretty modest (Eurasia Group today has it at 20 per cent). The technical details over Ireland look dauntingly difficult. But what cannot be ignored is that, in crude political terms, a Brexit deal by October 31 is precisely what Mr Johnson needs more than ever.