“The global expansion has peaked,” the OECD warns in its latest economic outlook,
and performance could be weaker if downside risks materialise. The
party is not over yet: global growth is expected to continue in 2019 and
2020, though at a slower pace. But forecasters are notoriously bad at
spotting macroeconomic turning points, and the road ahead is hard to
read.
Potential
obstacles abound: more aggressive monetary tightening, especially in
the United States; a further escalation of protectionism; a
harder-than-expected economic landing in China; and a return of tensions
in the euro zone, triggered by concerns over the fate of Italian
finances. All or any could intensify a slowdown that has started
already.
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