Regardless of the outcome of the Article
50 negotiations, Britain and Europe will remain inextricably linked
even after Brexit. But what this partnership will look like largely
depends on whether the former can, in the next few weeks, persuade its
soon-to-be-gone EU partners that the time is ripe to move on to the
second phase of the Brexit talks. If a provisional political agreement
on the nature of the future relationship between the UK and the EU
cannot be found, there is a serious risk that the negotiation talks will
result in a purely technical treaty of secession, reverting the UK to
third country status. To avoid this scenario and salvage the talks,
there are a few things both parties need to realise:
Britain can’t Brexit without help from the EU.
The debate in Britain about options for the future continues to be
lamentably vague and ill-informed. Despite the UK’s government positions
papers of earlier this year, it seems no one in the UK is ready to
answer detailed questions about the nature of a prospective association
agreement.
The EU27 will have a lot of thinking to do. The
options are limited; none are simple; all have implications for
relations with third countries; and all will involve the UK in on-going
institutional and budgetary relations with the EU. Meanwhile, it is
wrong to characterise the second phase of the Brexit negotiations as
being the commencement of trade talks, which will only come later once
the UK’s future location has been identified and agreed. The length
of the transition period should be set at a minimum of two years on a
renewable basis until such time as the new association agreement, with
robust governance structures, enters into force.
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