Given that Mrs Theresa May seems certain to be returned as UK Prime
Minister with a greatly increased majority after the UK General Election
on 8 June next, it is worth paying particular attention to what the Conservative Party manifesto which
was launched yesterday has to say on Brexit issues in general and
trade, immigration and agricultural issues in particular.
The manifesto actually has little new to say on these topics, with
the exception of a new promise to extend agricultural support at current
levels to the end of the next parliament, i.e. 2022 compared to the
current commitment to maintain support at current levels to 2020. Given
that EU agricultural spending may well be reduced in the next
Multiannual Financial Framework period, we could end up with the
paradoxical outcome that farmers in the UK, supposedly the greatest
critic of the CAP, will receive higher payments following Brexit than if
the UK were to remain a member of the EU, at least for a period (though
of course direct payments are only one factor in farm incomes, and
changes in trade access
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