I note that a consensus seems to be emerging that the war in Ukraine will be a long haul. A dominant view seems to be that neither side can deliver the knockout blow, and that a long drawn out war of attrition will result, similar in many respects to the Iran - Iraq war of the 1980s. Many of those pushing this line seem to suggest that this is indeed now President Putin’s own default setting. That somehow he thinks that Russia, and Russians’ powers of endurance, as seen during WW2, can simply outlast Ukraine and its Western backers. Eventually delivering victory, however, bloody and painful.
If true this would indeed offer up a grim outlook for hundreds, if not millions of casualties, hundreds of billions of dollars in defense spending and destroyed infrastructure, as Russian and Ukrainian economies are ground down. Mass suffering, impoverishment for masses and mass migration out of Russia and Ukraine. But also significant global impact through continued disruptions to global supply chains, and further pressure on the global cost of living crisis. I for one struggle though with the outlook as above.
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