Human migration due to droughts will increase by at least 200% as we move through the 21st century, research indicates.
Based on a series of both climate and social science modeling systems and other social science data, the study findings imply that migration may force the need to adjust sociopolitical policies to offset widespread human displacement in the future. The study appears in International Migration Review.
According to lead author Oleg Smirnov, associate professor in the department of political science at Stony Brook University, the research team worked from 16 climate models to generate drought projections for rest of the 21st century. They centered on two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: an optimistic one consistent with the Paris Agreement, and a pessimistic one based on current use of energy and greenhouse gas emissions.
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