Global GDP has slowed sharply, from near 4% in late 2017 to half that rate on an annualised basis in recent quarters. The downturn in fortunes over the last two years has come as a big surprise. The rapid expansion of 2016/2017 was broad-based but died young.
Manufactured goods slowed far more than services. Investment slowed even as consumption remained solid. And world trade has decelerated massively, from growth of nearly 6% in 2017, to zero over the last year, a very unusual occurrence.
The global slowdown has occurred against a background of protectionist steps initiated in Washington and reciprocated around the world. These measures included, among others, the first invocation of national security to tax aluminium and steel and subsequently to threaten autos, and the use of section 301 (unfair trade), unprecedented since the creation of the World Trade Organisation, to justify across the board tariffs against
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