Friday, June 28, 2019

Today in Brexit: Mark Carney is calling out Boris Johnson on his facts.

The head of the Bank of  England has been challenging Britain’s likely next prime minister on his facts. It could be a taste of things to come. 
For the second time in a week, Carney poked holes in Johnson’s argument that the worst fallout of a no-deal Brexit could be avoided by using an arcane instrument of international trade known as Article 24 of the GATT. Despite Carney’s first intervention, Johnson continued to insist that the measure provided a “way forward.” Carney repeated yesterday that it probably didn’t. 

Carney’s term as governor continues through January 2020. That means he’s going to be in the hot seat as the potential Oct. 31 cliff edge comes into view. As the new government sets out its Brexit policy, the bank will have to make new forecasts that take the government’s plans into account. That could put Carney back in the role of reality-checker.
Johnson insists (as does his rival Jeremy Hunt) that he’ll prepare for no-deal. He aims to show the European side that it’s a viable alternative that won’t destroy the British economy. At the same time the Bank of England, judging by past form, would be offering some pretty gloomy forecasts for what a no-deal exit would mean.
Carney is loathed by hardline Brexiteers, who accuse him of fear-mongering and overplaying the economic impact of the divorce. But he was seen by many as a source of stability in the immediate aftermath of the 2016 referendum. One former policy maker called Carney the “only adult in the room.”
He might be pushed back into that position later this year.

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