The head of the Bank of England has been challenging Britain’s likely next prime minister on his facts. It could be a taste of things to come.
For
the second time in a week, Carney poked holes in Johnson’s argument
that the worst fallout of a no-deal Brexit could be avoided by using an arcane instrument of international trade
known as Article 24 of the GATT. Despite Carney’s first intervention,
Johnson continued to insist that the measure provided a “way forward.”
Carney repeated yesterday that it probably didn’t.
Carney’s term as governor continues through January 2020.
That means he’s going to be in the hot seat as the potential Oct. 31
cliff edge comes into view. As the new government sets out its Brexit
policy, the bank will have to make new forecasts that take the
government’s plans into account. That could put Carney back in the role
of reality-checker.
Johnson insists
(as does his rival Jeremy Hunt) that he’ll prepare for no-deal. He
aims to show the European side that it’s a viable alternative that won’t
destroy the British economy. At the same time the Bank of England,
judging by past form, would be offering some pretty gloomy forecasts for
what a no-deal exit would mean.
Carney
is loathed by hardline Brexiteers, who accuse him of fear-mongering and
overplaying the economic impact of the divorce. But he was seen by many
as a source of stability in the immediate aftermath of the 2016
referendum. One former policy maker called Carney the “only adult in the
room.”
He might be pushed back into that position later this year.
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