Monday, February 28, 2011

Forgotten But Not Gone: Europe's Debt Crisis

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Indeed, although nowhere near their peaks of last year, euro zone peripheral yield spreads over German debt have widened in February. Italy has swelled by about 50 basis points and Spain 40 basis points. Significantly, Portuguese five- and 10-year yields remain above 7 percent, levels which previously forced bailouts in Greece and Ireland.
This suggests that a series of debt auctions in the week ahead will be closely watched for what they say about confidence in Europe's finances.
Belgium, which has come under some pressure, auctions 2014, 2018 and 2021 bonds on Monday. Spain, one of the potential hotspots, will auction five-year bonds on Thursday, and investors will be particularly watching a Portuguese buy-back on Wednesday for signs of a fire sale.
The core is not excluded either. The Netherlands goes to market on Tuesday, Germany on Wednesday and France on Thursday. What may make these auctions more noteworthy than usual is that they come in the run-up to a March 11 special euro zone summit that is supposed to come to some agreement over what a permanent debt management mechanism might look like.
A meeting on Friday in Helsinki of centre-right euro zone leaders -- expected to include Germany's Angela Merkel -- may give some kind of flavour..''


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