Thursday, March 15, 2018

Brexit, phase two (and beyond): The future of the EU-UK relationship'' by Maria Demertzis and André Sapir

The European Commission has recommended to the Council that sufficient progress has been made in phase one of the EU-UK negotiations. With the Council expected to endorse the recommendation this week, phase-two discussions on the future relationship can start (possibly in March).
A possible timeline of the next steps in the EU-UK relationship is shown in the diagram below:
  • a one-year period of negotiations that will take us up to October/November of 2018, at the latest. This allows for the minimum time required for the new agreement to be ratified by the EU by March 2019 – the cut-off date for the UK to leave the EU.
  • After March 2019, a two-year period is envisaged in which the UK would most likely remain a full member of the EU single market and customs union, but without any voting rights. During this period, the UK would also remain bound by decisions of the European Court of Justice and continue to pay its full share in the EU budget. This should ensure a smooth transition from EU membership to the new EU-UK framework...
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